Friends, I’m just re-posting my quick G+ note about “The Signal and the Noise“, Nate Silver‘s very good book about forecasting and the myriad challenges to doing that well. Some chapters are better than others – although all are good. I especially recommend Chapter 8, Less and Less Wrong, which is a terrific introduction to Bayesian statistics, with some good scenarios and examples.
Really, really good book – fits in with Daniel Kahneman‘s “Thinking, Fast and Slow” (http://goo.gl/jywTu) and also with “Data Analysis with Open Source Tools” from Phillipp Janert and, to a certain extent, with “Think Stats” from Allen B. Downey. The two data books emphasize Bayesian and data-based approaches to statistics and probability, while Kahneman’s book is a detailed analysis of the many ways that our models (and our brains) fail to accurately reflect and analyze reality.
The difference is that I’ve actually finished Nate Silver’s book, while the other three sit in various stages of completion on my virtual night-stand.